Street Economics Q4 - The Winners

The economy smells like tuna salad left too long in the sun. But a number of people and industries will profit from the downturn.

Some of them are visible and will become icons of hatred for all us regular folks. Right now the No. 1 voodoo doll is Robert Fuld, CEO of bankrupt Lehman Brothers, who, along with a couple of cronies, was anointed with a $20 million severance package.

But there are others that not only will survive, but prosper during the big slide while folks like us count our loose change before going to the grocery store. Some of the less-obvious winners:

Brewers -- There is a direct correlation between economic health and beer sales. When times get tough, people stop buying from Mr. Curvoisier and start buying from Messrs. Busch and Miller.

The Military -- As low-end jobs disappear, military recruitment will become easier. Yes, enlistees might get shot at, but free housing, medical care, food and clothing will make the risk more acceptable.

Birth Control Makers -- The U.S. birth rate dropped 15 percent during the Great Depression.

Retail Brokerages - They charge fees when you buy. They charge fees when you sell. Some of them charge fees when you don't do anything.

The Sex Trade -- As a professional analyst would put it, "Anticipated increases in competition will exert downward pressure on pricing. However, demand will remain at historically high levels. Therefore, we believe marketing and quality of service will be the keys to success for this industry in the near- and mid-term."

Man On The Street Economics

The gurus say economic growth will slow in 2007 but not so dramatically that a recession will bite. I am more optimistic.

Of couse, my way of measuring economic health is less sophisticated than the methods used by the pros.

First, I navigate to craigslist and check out postings for jobs highly sensitive to economic ups and downs, such as those in PR and advertising. The number of offered positions is growing, so companies are confident.

Then, I walk down the main drag near my home in Palo Alto to see if fast-food restaurants and carwashes sport "now hiring" signs. The banners are flying, so folks with only basic job skills can find jobs paying more than $10 an hour.

About a mile later, I drop into my favorite hangout, La Bodeguita del Medio. Difficulty finding a spot at the bar before 6 p.m. on Friday means people have plenty of discretionary income and are willing to spend it. There was a big crowd last night.

A couple of minutes online, a brisk walk and a comforting cocktail. It usually works.