Wednesday, January 19, 2005

Why Newspapers are Dying

An editor recently said to me he didn't believe his newspaper's website was "supporting" his publication. I told him the website should be viewed as an entity unto itself rather than as a promotional device or a tease to print. I also argued that in the near future printed newspapers were likely to become the promotional vehicles for websites -- sort of TV Guides referring readers to audio- and video-rich stories on the website.

"Everyone knows print has advantages that the Web and broadcast can't deliver so we'll always be around," he declared.

He is so wrong.

Portability. Yes, you can stick a magazine or newspaper in your briefcase and read it at your convenience. But soon you'll be able to take three minutes to download a customized newsfeed into your iPod in less time than it taks you to go outside and pick up your copy of the Daily Blat. Unfortunately, for newspapers to be successful they must become less portable; more ads mean more bulk. The Sunday New York Times or Los Angeles Times can weigh 7 to 9 pounds.

Greater Depth. Newspapers take pride in offering longer, more thoughtful analysis than can be provided by media ruled by instant everything. But even when newspapers try to get serious about this, their articles are 24-48 hours old to readers already drowning in comments by pundits and experts on round-the-clock cable news channels.

Many Readers Simply Prefer Print. True, but fewer and fewer all the time. Most publishers forecast that newspapers will hang on for the forseeable future because Baby Boomers long ago developed the newspaper reading habit. They should remember, though, that Boomers (including Tim Berners Lee, co-creator of the Internet) were the first generation to exploit the potential of personal computers and the online world. Most of them are just beginning to retire but they will carry forward and refine their online habits.

The 18-35 age group is lost forever. Boomer children grew up with hundreds of cable channels and the Web. Boomer grandchildren started playing with computers before they went to school and probably feel left out if, by Grade 6, they don't own a WiFi-capable phone.

Publishers are catching on, but far too slowly. They are ignoring their own experience. Sports editors and writers figured out the need to evolve more than 30 years ago when live broadcasts of sports events became ubiquitous. Except for grumbles from a few retirees, newspapers felt little pain when they began dropping comprehensive daily stock tables. Measured progress doesn't work in today's world where growth in the pace of change is expoential.

Despite reality slapping them in the face, publishers continue to focus too much on resuscitating and developing their ink-on-paper products and far too little on exploiting the possibilities of the future. And that is bad for business.










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